NBS - National Bureau of Statistics, South Sudan

Key Population Indicators (2023)

Total Population

14.75M

+3.57% annual growth

Male Population

7.52M

50.9% of total

Female Population

7.22M

49.1% of total

Avg. Growth Rate

3.57%

2020-2040 projection

Population Structure and Trends

Population Growth Projection (2020-2040)

State-wise Growth Rates (2020-2040)

State Population Data (2023)

State	Male Population	Female Population	Total Population	Growth Rate (2020-2040)	% of National Total
South Sudan (National)	7,524,408	7,222,086	14,746,494	3.57%	100.0%
Upper Nile State	907,392	824,677	1,732,069	3.69%	11.7%
Jonglei State	1,175,469	1,093,902	2,269,371	3.21%	15.4%
Unity State	570,818	550,843	1,121,661	4.16%	7.6%
Warrap State	828,396	868,275	1,696,671	3.42%	11.5%
Northern Bahr el Ghazal	300,758	282,602	583,360	3.59%	4.0%
Western Bahr el Ghazal	310,456	292,495	602,951	3.47%	4.1%
Lakes State	N/A	N/A	N/A	4.06%	N/A
Western Equatoria	N/A	N/A	N/A	2.51%	N/A
Central Equatoria	N/A	N/A	N/A	3.35%	N/A
Eastern Equatoria	N/A	N/A	N/A	4.00%	N/A

Key Observations

• Jonglei State has the largest population with 2.27 million (15.4% of national total)
• Unity State has the highest growth rate at 4.16% annually
• Western Equatoria has the lowest growth rate at 2.51% annually
• Male population slightly exceeds female population in most states
• Data for some states (Lakes, Equatoria states) is incomplete in the provided dataset

Population Projections (2020-2040)

South Sudan National Population Projections

Year	Male Population	Female Population	Total Population	Annual Growth	Growth from 2020
2020	6,775,160	6,474,764	13,249,924	-	0.0%
2021	7,018,085	6,717,065	13,735,150	+3.66%	+3.66%
2022	7,268,273	6,966,704	14,234,977	+3.64%	+7.43%
2023	7,524,408	7,222,086	14,746,494	+3.59%	+11.29%
2024	7,778,606	7,475,663	15,254,269	+3.44%	+15.13%
2025	8,045,479	7,741,419	15,786,898	+3.49%	+19.15%
2030	9,593,068	9,279,451	18,872,519	+3.58%	+42.44%
2035	11,517,936	11,187,242	22,705,178	+3.77%	+71.38%
2040	13,903,398	13,547,313	27,450,711	+3.88%	+107.19%

Projection Highlights

• Population projected to double by 2040 (27.45M from 13.25M in 2020)
• Average annual growth rate of 3.57% from 2020-2040
• Growth rate increases slightly over time (3.44% in 2024 to 3.88% in 2040)
• Male population consistently higher than female population

Implications

• Significant pressure on infrastructure and services
• Increased demand for education, healthcare, and housing
• Need for job creation for growing workforce
• Planning required for resource allocation across states

State Growth Rate Comparison

Highest Growth States

Unity State 4.16%

Lakes State 4.06%

Eastern Equatoria 4.00%

National Average

3.57%

Average annual growth rate 2020-2040

Lowest Growth States

Western Equatoria 2.51%

Jonglei State 3.21%

Warrap State 3.42%

Methodology

The population projections were prepared by the National Bureau of Statistics using the cohort component method. This methodology projects population by age and sex using the components of demographic change:

• Births: Using age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) from SSHHS 2010 data
• Deaths: Using age-specific mortality rates (ASMRs) from life tables
• Migration: Population assumed closed to migration (immigrants = emigrants)
• Sex Ratio: 103 male births to 100 female births

The projections build on previous 2015-2020 projections and use 2020 as the base year. Single-year projections are aggregated to five-year figures for analysis. The Bureau completed this third set of projections to facilitate government planning towards achieving South Sudan's development vision.

Related Resources

Population Projections Report (2020 - 2040)

Complete population projections from 2020 to 2040.

Download PDF

Population Projections Report (2015 - 2020)

Complete population projections from 2015 to 2020.