NBS - National Bureau of Statistics, South Sudan

IPC Acute Food Insecurity Scale

Phase 1

Minimal

Phase 2

Stressed

Phase 3

Crisis

Phase 4

Emergency

Phase 5

Catastrophe/Famine

IPC Phase	Description	Key Indicators	Recommended Response
Phase 1: Minimal	Households are able to meet essential food and non-food needs without engaging in atypical, unsustainable strategies	Stable food access, minimal livelihood changes	Development programs, resilience building
Phase 2: Stressed	Households have minimally adequate food consumption but are unable to afford some essential non-food expenditures	Reduced dietary diversity, accelerated depletion of assets	Livelihood support, safety nets
Phase 3: Crisis	Households have food consumption gaps with high or above-usual acute malnutrition	High malnutrition rates, crisis coping strategies	Targeted humanitarian assistance
Phase 4: Emergency	Households have large food consumption gaps resulting in very high acute malnutrition and excess mortality	Severe food consumption gaps, emergency coping strategies	Urgent, multi-sectoral humanitarian action
Phase 5: Catastrophe/Famine	Households have an extreme lack of food and/or other basic needs even with full employment of coping strategies	Starvation, death, destitution, extreme critical acute malnutrition	Immediate large-scale multi-sectoral humanitarian response

Current IPC Analysis (April-July 2025 Projection)

Population in Crisis or Worse (Phase 3+)

7.7M

57% of total population

Population in Emergency (Phase 4)

2.4M

18% of total population

Population in Catastrophe (Phase 5)

83,000

1% of total population

Acutely Malnourished Children

2.3M

+218,000 since Oct 2024

IPC Trends and Analysis

Population in IPC Phase 3+ (2020-2025)

Current IPC Population Distribution

Regional IPC Analysis

IPC Phase by Region (April-July 2025)

Regional Summary

Region	Worst Phase	Population in Phase 3+	% of Regional Population
Unity	Emergency	775,000	67%
Upper Nile	Catastrophe	1,041,000	66%
Jonglei	Catastrophe	1,284,000	61%
Northern Bahr el Ghazal	Emergency	576,000	60%
Central Equatoria	Emergency	911,000	57%
Warrap	Emergency	729,000	55%

Regional Analysis

Unity, Upper Nile, and Jonglei states remain the most severely affected regions, with over 60% of their populations in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) or Catastrophe (Phase 5) conditions. These areas face compounded challenges including conflict, flooding, and economic shocks.

Detailed State-Level IPC Analysis (April-July 2025)

Comprehensive breakdown of food insecurity across all states of South Sudan.

State	Phase 1 Minimal	Phase 2 Stressed	Phase 3 Crisis	Phase 4 Emergency	Phase 5 Catastrophe	Phase 3+ Total	% Phase 3+
Unity	9%	24%	48%	19%	0%	775,000	67%
Upper Nile	8%	26%	42%	23%	2%	1,041,000	66%
Jonglei	14%	25%	38%	23%	1%	1,284,000	61%
Northern Bahr el Ghazal	13%	27%	39%	20%	0%	576,000	60%
Central Equatoria	12%	31%	45%	12%	0%	911,000	57%
Lakes	14%	32%	40%	14%	0%	678,000	54%
Warrap	17%	28%	36%	19%	0%	729,000	55%
Eastern Equatoria	23%	31%	33%	13%	0%	536,000	46%
Western Bahr el Ghazal	15%	45%	34%	6%	0%	275,000	40%
Western Equatoria	29%	45%	23%	3%	0%	260,000	26%
Returnees	5%	10%	35%	45%	5%	666,000	85%

Hotspot Area	State	IPC Phase	Population in Phase 5	Key Drivers	Risk of Famine
Luakpiny/Nasir	Upper Nile	Catastrophe	15,000	Conflict, airstrikes, displacement, cholera outbreak	High Risk
Ulang	Upper Nile	Catastrophe	7,000	Armed violence, displacement, cholera, aid blockage	High Risk
Pibor County	Greater Pibor Admin Area	Catastrophe	12,000	Conflict, flooding, limited humanitarian access	Moderate Risk
Malakal	Upper Nile	Catastrophe	10,000	Conflict, returnee influx, market disruption	Monitor
Returnee Population	Multiple States	Catastrophe	39,000	Displacement, lack of livelihood, no assistance	High Risk

Immediate Response Priorities

• Scale up multi-sectoral emergency assistance in Phase 4 and 5 areas
• Strengthen nutrition interventions for 2.3M acutely malnourished children
• Provide livelihood support to prevent further deterioration
• Enhance protection services in conflict-affected areas
• Address cholera outbreaks with vaccination and treatment

Medium-term Interventions

• Support agricultural recovery and food production
• Improve market functionality and trade routes
• Strengthen early warning and response systems
• Build community resilience to shocks
• Address funding gaps for humanitarian assistance

Key Drivers and Projections

Key Drivers of Food Insecurity

Conflict and Insecurity

Ongoing conflict in Upper Nile, Jonglei, and Unity states has displaced populations, disrupted livelihoods, and limited humanitarian access, creating "no-go zones".

Climate Shocks and Flooding

Widespread flooding affecting 180,000 people, damaging crops, destroying infrastructure, and increasing waterborne diseases like cholera.

Economic Crisis

Currency depreciation (67% food price increase in Juba), high inflation, and reduced household purchasing power limit food access.

Returnee Crisis

1.1M+ returnees from Sudan with 85% facing acute food insecurity, overwhelming host communities and limited resources.

Disease Outbreaks

Cholera outbreaks with high fatality rates (up to 4.4%), malaria, and diarrhoea exacerbating malnutrition and straining health systems.

Acute Malnutrition Situation (April-June 2025)

Nutrition Crisis

2.3 million children are acutely malnourished (10.5% increase since Oct 2024), with 714,000 suffering from Severe Acute Malnutrition. 62 out of 80 counties show deterioration in acute malnutrition, with 11 counties moving to higher phases.

Integrated Phase Classification (IPC)